China and the World: Scenarios to 2025

With one of the fastest growing economies in the world, China is taking on increased strategic importance as an emerging global player. At the same time, the country faces complex economic, political, social and environmental challenges, and stakeholders in China must be prepared for a variety of different futures.

China’s economic development over the past two decades has surprised both her critics and supporters. Since 1978 when China launched its "Four Modernizations" reform process under the leadership of Deng Xiaoping, growth has averaged 9.5% annually. As a result, China has climbed in world rankings to become the sixth largest economy in terms of nominal gross domestic product.

All need to think about what could happen next. But China’s future is not merely of interest for experts. China’s impact on global growth, resource allocation, trade and investment, as well as geopolitical balance has direct consequences for every part of the planet. 

To gain a better understanding of the possible outcomes, along with the key trends and events that might shape them over the next 20 years, the World Economic Forum set out to develop scenarios on the future of China. The resulting scenarios are the creation of all who took part in the project—they go beyond the assumptions and perspectives held by any individual, interest group or organization.

When looking at the future of China, two core questions stand out:

1. Can China implement internal reforms to further its development?
   
   
2. How will China’s relationship with the rest of the world affect its development and shape the global

Regional Ties describes how China continues on the path of reform despite an international environment that becomes increasingly difficult. Chinese leadership and vision facilitate the forging of regional ties that help overcome historical enmities and restore prosperity in Asia.

Unfulfilled Promise describes a China where the desire for economic development is not supported by the necessary structural reforms. The name reflects the general sentiment among the Chinese people that the promise made to them in terms of inclusive economic development has been largely unfulfilled.

New Silk Road describes the flourishing economic and cultural rise of China, a feat achieved despite the presence of substantial internal obstacles. The scenario reflects China’s peaceful geopolitical integration and its sizeable role in the exchange of goods, services, investments and ideas. In this way it recreates the original Silk Road.